Determination of the Course of COVID-19 Pandemic Using Modified Mathematical Modeling

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19 appeared in China at the end of 2019. It then spread all over the world very quickly. The new type of corona virus COVID-19, which causes respiratory tract infection, is destructive with its high rate of transmission and mortality rate

Aim: In this study, previously applied to literature in Turkey and Iran, to determine the course of epidemics with the help of a specially modified mathematical modeling to calculate the course of the pandemic in Afghanistan and COVID-19 is intended to reveal.

Method and Results: If the normal course of the disease continues, the number of cases after 4 months is expected to reach the limit of 135,000. However, depending on the severity of increasing public, social and individual measures, it is predicted that the total number of cases may fall below 100,000. If the disease continues to spread in its current form, it is possible to reach more than 2000 new cases daily by reaching the maximum level, like the end of June-early July. However, it is understood from the graph that this number will fall much further if the measures are followed. According to our modified mathematical modeling results, the COVID-19 pandemic will spread very rapidly in Afghanistan. However, it is possible to reduce the number of cases and deaths very effectively with easy measures.