Zafer Cakir , Hasan Basri Savas , Sayed Hamid Mousavi ,
Shafi Ullah Zahid , Kalimullah Wardak
Introduction: COVID-19 appeared in China at the end of 2019.
It then spread all over the world very quickly. The new type of corona virus
COVID-19, which causes respiratory tract infection, is destructive with its
high rate of transmission and mortality rate
Aim: In this study, previously applied to literature in Turkey and
Iran, to determine the course of epidemics with the help of a specially
modified mathematical modeling to calculate the course of the pandemic in
Afghanistan and COVID-19 is intended to reveal.
Method and Results: If the
normal course of the disease continues, the number of cases after 4 months is
expected to reach the limit of 135,000. However, depending on the severity of
increasing public, social and individual measures, it is predicted that the
total number of cases may fall below 100,000. If
the disease continues to spread in its current form, it is possible to reach
more than 2000 new cases daily by reaching the maximum level, like the end of
June-early July. However, it is understood from the graph that this number will
fall much further if the measures are followed.
According to our modified mathematical modeling results, the
COVID-19 pandemic will spread very rapidly in Afghanistan. However, it is
possible to reduce the number of cases and deaths very effectively with easy
measures.